Nigeria’s political party dominance has often revolved around a two-pod and a tripod. Since the 1960s it has been so. In the First Republic, under a parliamentary system, there were Nnamdi Azikiwe’s National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons (NCNC); Obafemi Awolowo’s Action Group (AG) and Ahmadu Bello’s Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) as the leading political groupings. There were a few other viable political entities like Aminu Kano’s Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU), but none had the puissance of the big three.
In the Second Republic (1979), under a presidential system, there were the National Party of Nigeria (NPN); the Nigerian Peoples Party (NPP), and the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) as the three leading political structures.
The People’s Redemption Party (PRP), an ideological rebirth of Aminu Kano’s NEPU – was also reckonable — but only for its ideological leanings which appealed to the educated elite. But it did not have the stature and spread of the famous three.In the still-birthed 1993 presidential election, there were the National Republican Convention (NRC) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) as the two contending political blocs. The Babangida regime which midwifed the election principally ensured that only two political parties subsist.
But the Third Republic suffered a miscarriage under the impingement of the military. In 1999, it was an all-comers affair initially but eventually natural selection happened. Only two political parties stood out at the centre – the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Alliance for Democracy which transmogrified into the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN).Today, there are only two leading political camps – the PDP and the APC.
Darwin’s theory of evolution is manifestly evident in Nigeria’s political progression. The parties that have the resources, capacity and structure to adapt, merge, and re-merge have been able to survive the tempestuous political milieu. In 2021, INEC deregistered 22 political parties – those unable to achieve advantageous mutations. And more will die out after the 2023 elections.
The reality is that only the APC and the PDP are viable political vehicles. It is easy to theorise and sermonise about the deficiencies of these parties but the peculiarities of our political cosmos give them the oxygen and nourishment to survive.
Both parties have functional advantage over other parties in elections. In the recently concluded area council election in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), the winnings were split between the APC and the PDP – three each out of six councils.It is intellectual torment to keep debating the ideological grounding and morality of these parties. Sheer self-purgatory.
As I said earlier, these parties subsist because that is what our present political evolutionary curve guarantees. But the outcome of the 2023 elections may cause a seismic jolt in the political terra firma.
Atiku Abubakar, PDP presidential hopeful, had said the party would pass into oblivion if it did not win the 2023 presidential election. This is likely for both the APC and the PDP after 2023 – whichever group that loses the election. Natural selection will happen, and there could be alliances, mergers and re-alliances.